Flight Statistics vs. The TEEFW Ratio
Tuesday, 02 June 2009 00:00
When I was a small boy, the idea of flying intrigued me, but I got over it.
My father was a B-17 pilot during WWII, so I assume at one point in his life, flying held his interest, too. After 35 missions over enemy territory in Europe, being shot up by flak, belly-sliding a bomber onto an airfield with no operational landing gear, and outliving his air-life expectancy by at least ten missions, my dad never again set foot in a plane.
Smart move on his part, I think. I was able to get over my interest in flying when I realized how inherently dangerous flying was.
During my short time here on planet Earth, I have heard over and over again that, statistically, flying is the safest way to travel. Your chance of dying while in the air is, by percentages, smaller than you chance of dying while in a car. At least, that’s what people keep telling me. I heard that “fact” today, while discussing the probable crash of a French airliner flying from Brazil to France. One minute it was there, the next minute it was ocean debris 400 miles north of Brazil. The 226 souls aboard that flight are now part of the other statistic, the one nobody ever mentions when discussing air flight.
What’s that other statistic? It’s the TEEFW ratio. It’s the percentage of people who survive total engine/electrical/fuel/whatever failure at 20,000 feet vs. the number of people who survive total engine/electrical/fuel/whatever failure while in their car.
Never heard of that statistic? Don’t feel alone, I made up that acronym for this article. But, that gulf between those two percentages, if measured, would be immense.
My guess is if someone is at 20,000, snuggled in the coach seat, enjoying their weak OJ and stale peanuts, and their plane experiences TEEFW, then their chance of survival is somewhere around zero.
By contrast, those drivers and passengers who experience TEEFW at 55 MPH on a local highway have pretty close to a 100% chance of survival.
Considering that all things made by the hand of man are prone to failure, and the certainty of death when that happens at 20,000 feet, I think I’ll keep my feet on the ground. My truck may not be the shiniest, newest thing in the fleet, and it may not have a pilot with a cool uniform driving it, but I know when it experiences TEEFW failure on the highway, I can pull over, raise the hood, see what’s up, and use the cell phone for assistance. The 226 people aboard that French airliner couldn’t do that. For me, that’s one stat that’s solid enough for me to stay earth bound.
Share Link: 
